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post #1 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 01:40 PM Thread Starter
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Speculation, not supply and demand

Study links oil prices to investor speculation - Yahoo! News

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post #2 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 02:34 PM
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That article is obviously "spin".

Everybody with two brain cells to rub together knows that the AP is anti-Bush-administration and pro anything socialists or leftist or supported by the so-called "liberal" national Democrats. Did you notice where the article came from and who they quoted?

By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer

Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash.,

Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D.,

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich.,

With just a tiny bit of research, I'm sure you can find other studies that show supply and demand are much more cause for the current price of oil and gas and diesel. Maybe begin with the sources cited by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission in that report the Democrats are fussing about?

"Futures" prices don't have much to do with the price you pay at the pump. But the actual selling price today does. And the actual selling price today is determined primarily by supply and demand.




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post #3 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by SmokeyWren View Post
That article is obviously "spin".

Everybody with two brain cells to rub together knows that the AP is anti-Bush-administration and pro anything socialists or leftist or supported by the so-called "liberal" national Democrats. Did you notice where the article came from and who they quoted?

By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer

Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash.,

Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D.,

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich.,

With just a tiny bit of research, I'm sure you can find other studies that show supply and demand are much more cause for the current price of oil and gas and diesel. Maybe begin with the sources cited by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission in that report the Democrats are fussing about?

"Futures" prices don't have much to do with the price you pay at the pump. But the actual selling price today does. And the actual selling price today is determined primarily by supply and demand.

Supply and Demand!

Well that settles it then. Thank goodness!

They must have found some more to necessitate that 50 buck a barrel price drop.
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post #4 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 07:20 PM
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Supply and Demand!

Well that settles it then. Thank goodness!

They must have found some more to necessitate that 50 buck a barrel price drop.
That's actually pretty funny.

It's also true.

No one with any brains has ever said that it wasn't "speculation" that was driving the price.

The point of some of us was.........................So What?

It's a free market and if someone is willing to roll the dice that a certain commodity will be worth more in the future than it is now..........what gives anyone the right to say they can't do it?

For those who were so mad that someone would actually use their money to "speculate," are you now going to feel sorry that they have obviously lost their azz?
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post #5 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 01:55 AM
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No one with any brains has ever said that it wasn't "speculation" that was driving the price.

The point of some of us was.........................So What?
Tell that to the airlines that are out of business, the small trucking companies that tanked, the elderly people in the northeast that burn oil to heat their homes.

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It's a free market and if someone is willing to roll the dice that a certain commodity will be worth more in the future than it is now..........what gives anyone the right to say they can't do it?
The Constitution gives the U.S. government the right to stop anything that is not good for the General Welfare of the country. Gamblers on Wall Street are not a service that society needs or values. In fact, those entities have always traditionally been a harm to society. Those traditions haven't changed.

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For those who were so mad that someone would actually use their money to "speculate," are you now going to feel sorry that they have obviously lost their azz?

The speculators haven't lost anything, only consumers. You are forgetting the American consumer PAID MORE for petrol products. Fluctuating prices are required to make money in the speculation game. The speculators took their profits. This is the down that is required so that speculators can reassert their positions again for next price run-up.
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post #6 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 03:41 AM
 
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Tell that to the airlines that are out of business, the small trucking companies that tanked, the elderly people in the northeast that burn oil to heat their homes.



The Constitution gives the U.S. government the right to stop anything that is not good for the General Welfare of the country. Gamblers on Wall Street are not a service that society needs or values. In fact, those entities have always traditionally been a harm to society. Those traditions haven't changed.




The speculators haven't lost anything, only consumers. You are forgetting the American consumer PAID MORE for petrol products. Fluctuating prices are required to make money in the speculation game. The speculators took their profits. This is the down that is required so that speculators can reassert their positions again for next price run-up.
If they speculate the price above a certain amount and the price goes below that amount, they are left to make up the difference or at least a portion thereof.

"Gamblers on wall street" guess your only plan for retirement is social security. If not then you're just one more person taking thier part of what "is not good for the General Welfare of the country". If you have a 401k I'd be willing to bet you own stock in an oil company and don't even know it.
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post #7 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 08:57 AM
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If there wasn't a supply and demand issue then there would be no speculation. Sorta like when orange juice and coffee goes sky high when there is a crop failure...you speculate that the price will go up on the futures market. No duhh.

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post #8 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 02:06 PM
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If they speculate the price above a certain amount and the price goes below that amount, they are left to make up the difference or at least a portion thereof.

"Gamblers on wall street" guess your only plan for retirement is social security. If not then you're just one more person taking thier part of what "is not good for the General Welfare of the country". If you have a 401k I'd be willing to bet you own stock in an oil company and don't even know it.

You think the kind of speculation we are talking about involves oil company stocks?


We are talking about speculation in the commodity itself of which the majority of is done by Hedge Funds and Foreign Investors who profiteer by stealing your energy dollar.
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post #9 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 02:11 PM
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If there wasn't a supply and demand issue then there would be no speculation. Sorta like when orange juice and coffee goes sky high when there is a crop failure...you speculate that the price will go up on the futures market. No duhh.

Good comments!

Unfortunately without limits on speculation, the speculation itself sets the price.

If speculators own too many contracts then they are actually setting the price, not betting on it. That is the reason we had limits in the first place.
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post #10 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 08:30 AM
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post #11 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Greasy_Dually View Post
"Gamblers on wall street" guess your only plan for retirement is social security. If not then you're just one more person taking thier part of what "is not good for the General Welfare of the country". If you have a 401k I'd be willing to bet you own stock in an oil company and don't even know it.
What you're paying for energy right now and what you have waiting for you in retirement (I have a 401K and know for a fact that energy companies are part of the package) don't really have much do with each other with regard to the here and now. Forget the fact that it costs $160 to fill your truck, forget that gasoline is over $3.00 a gallon. What about the fact that the U.S. economy runs on fossil fuels? Anyone who defends the right of the futures and options market to be wildly manipulated is basically saying the following:

"It's ok and in fact good for foreign (yes foreign) investors to bid up the price of oil which has a directly damaging effect on the U.S. economy."

Do you know what Saudi Arabians and folks from other small wealthy oil nations (Dubai, Qatar, UAE, etc...) DO for a living? They don't work the oil fields, I'll tell you that. Cheap labor is imported from Northern Africa and Indonesia to do all of the dirty work. The Saudis and the rest send their children to U.S. schools to get a good education-then they come home and guess what they do with mommy and daddy's money? They use it to speculate! Yes kids, those profits gleaned from inflating the price of a barrel of crude don't go anywhere near the pockets of an AMERICAN trader in New York or Chicago.

I believe wholeheartedly in the free market and capitalism, after all it's what built this country, but when we're literally HEMORRHAGING money to other countries because of speculation by foreign investors I've got to draw the line. I look at it like a giant standing in a field with people hacking at it's legs with pitchforks and pikes-the giant can only stand for so long. That's not the only way we're losing in the energy game either. Where is the world's largest wind turbine producer? Northern Germany-they're working like gangbusters to fill orders from all over the globe. Meanwhile our industrial cities crumble and our factories rust, having been vacant for years. We lose ground to Europe every day in terms of manufacturing energy efficient technologies. Thirty years ago my Grandfather had a good factory job and supported a solid middle class household. That factory has been shut for at least 15 years now.

You can talk about ideology and letting the free market determine all things all you want. Right now it's determining that the U.S. is going to be playing second fiddle to China before long in terms of the world economy. The United States is the greatest nation god has ever had the grace to bless the world with. We are the single greatest civilization ever conceived in the history of mankind-the idea of a world without the U.S. as the sole and supreme superpower is a scary one, and its not a world I want to raise my children in. We've been throwing it away economically for years and if we continue to allow this ponzi scheme to go on in the energy market we'll keep going down this road. I can only hope and pray that we will break out of the idea that shipping our money overseas by the boatload is "good" for the country.
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post #12 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:13 PM
 
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You think the kind of speculation we are talking about involves oil company stocks?


We are talking about speculation in the commodity itself of which the majority of is done by Hedge Funds and Foreign Investors who profiteer by stealing your energy dollar.
If you look at the post, I was addressing the "Gamblers on Wall Street" The post I quoted in my comment seemed to me to imply that "Wall Street" as a whole needs to be disolved by the government.

Yes I understand what a commodities market is. Don't see how we can get rid of commodities futures and still allow people to buy stocks in companies. It's all a "gamble" that what you are buying will go up in value.

Do I misunderstand something or what. I thought if the speculators expected oil to be at 150 a barrel, and demand goes down so the price you can get for a barrel goes down to say 100, then the speculators just lost money. Right? Seems to me that after a huge loss, the speculators would be more skitish.

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post #13 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:46 PM
 
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What you're paying for energy right now and what you have waiting for you in retirement (I have a 401K and know for a fact that energy companies are part of the package) don't really have much do with each other with regard to the here and now. Forget the fact that it costs $160 to fill your truck, forget that gasoline is over $3.00 a gallon. What about the fact that the U.S. economy runs on fossil fuels?
They do when the anger over fuel prices spreads into let's punish anyone who makes money off of oil. Which is all you hear more and more.

"Get rid of the speculators"

"Tax the oil companies more"

"Put a cap on fuel prices"

How bout this. When Bush removed the executive ban on offshore drilling, the prices went down immediately, even though that action was largely symbolic and did effectively nothing. Give the market reasons to anticipate an increase in supply relative to demand. Drilling here, alternative energy ect.
The speculators will have nothing to work with.
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post #14 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 02:55 PM
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If you look at the post, I was addressing the "Gamblers on Wall Street" The post I quoted in my comment seemed to me to imply that "Wall Street" as a whole needs to be disolved by the government.

Yes I understand what a commodities market is. Don't see how we can get rid of commodities futures and still allow people to buy stocks in companies. It's all a "gamble" that what you are buying will go up in value.

Do I misunderstand something or what. I thought if the speculators expected oil to be at 150 a barrel, and demand goes down so the price you can get for a barrel goes down to say 100, then the speculators just lost money. Right? Seems to me that after a huge loss, the speculators would be more skitish.

I don't need Stocks to run my everyday life which is why I am ok with speculators speculating in stocks.

No one is advocating getting rid of the futures market for legitimate hedgers, we are simply advocating returning it to pre 2003 regulations.
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post #15 of 45 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 02:57 PM
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They do when the anger over fuel prices spreads into let's punish anyone who makes money off of oil. Which is all you hear more and more.

"Get rid of the speculators"

"Tax the oil companies more"

"Put a cap on fuel prices"

How bout this. When Bush removed the executive ban on offshore drilling, the prices went down immediately, even though that action was largely symbolic and did effectively nothing. Give the market reasons to anticipate an increase in supply relative to demand. Drilling here, alternative energy ect.
The speculators will have nothing to work with.

Why not just limit the positions speculators can take like we did pre 2003 so that the laws of Supply and Demand can work freely?
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