[roofeditor]

With diesel priced higher than gasoline NOW, any one want to guess the price of Ultra-low sulfur once it becomes mandatory? I'm betting it will not come on line smoothly and refineries will not be able to change over quickly and efficiently. I'm also sure the middle-man distributors will take advantage of this and we will see $3.00 until there is a congressional investigation. The press will probably blame the person that once had ties to Halliburton, and the distributors will probably blame the Arabs, and the consumer will get screwed again.....as usual. Another great idea that will not work as well as expected. I am betting (not hoping for) on $3.00? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/shrug.gif

 

[dejavoodoo]

What needs to happen is the Trucking industry both owner ops and teamster to get together and shut the country down. Then you have a change in the way the government looks at prices

 

[brewcider]

I buy ULSD all the time. It's about the same or a nickel more a gallon compared to traditional diesel.

 

[windnsea01]

I have found ULSD diesel to be some of the cheapest diesel around San Diego (most Arco's, which is part of BP, now carries it)

 

[LeRoy]

So how do you know if your getting ULSF? Does it say so on the pump or what?

LeRoy

 

[windnsea01]

[ QUOTE ]
So how do you know if your getting ULSF? Does it say so on the pump or what?

LeRoy

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it will tell you on the pump, they call it ECD... locator link

 

[LeRoy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So how do you know if your getting ULSF? Does it say so on the pump or what?

LeRoy

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it will tell you on the pump, they call it ECD... locator link

[/ QUOTE ]

How long has this stuff been out? I used to fuel up at the ARCO in Mecca on my way to or from Glamis until they P***** me off. They cut me off with my ATM card at $99 charged me to use my ATM and then stated charging to use the RV dump. Since the I havent spent a nickel there. I stop there to use the rest room and then move on.

LeRoy

 

[aceohearts]

[ QUOTE ]
What needs to happen is the Trucking industry both owner ops and teamster to get together and shut the country down. Then you have a change in the way the government looks at prices

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is that not everyone could or would shut down, and the teamsters are a smaller part of the industry every year. Some of us can't afford to be out of work for 2-3 weeks, and there are always the guys that will run at rock bottom rates because they're too stupid to know otherwise...Makes it hard for the rest of us to earn a decent living. Fuel goes up $.50 a gallon, and I lose $5 p/hour income until rates come up to meet it, and they rarely do...Plus every time the rates we have to charge to haul the goods do go up, the prices the retailer charges for the goods also go up. So you're not only paying your own higher fuel costs, but mine also. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

 

[roofeditor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What needs to happen is the Trucking industry both owner ops and teamster to get together and shut the country down. Then you have a change in the way the government looks at prices

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is that not everyone could or would shut down, and the teamsters are a smaller part of the industry every year. Some of us can't afford to be out of work for 2-3 weeks, and there are always the guys that will run at rock bottom rates because they're too stupid to know otherwise...Makes it hard for the rest of us to earn a decent living. Fuel goes up $.50 a gallon, and I lose $5 p/hour income until rates come up to meet it, and they rarely do...Plus every time the rates we have to charge to haul the goods do go up, the prices the retailer charges for the goods also go up. So you're not only paying your own higher fuel costs, but mine also. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Prices do come full circle. We are running 12 International 4900's and have a contract to deliver lumber for 84 Lumber. As fuel goes up we eventually charge more and 84 charges more and the builder that buys the lumber charges more and the buyer of the home pays more. And if we buy a new home we pay more!!!!!! Now that my friends is full circle.

 

[drcampbell]

[ QUOTE ]
. . . every time the rates we have to charge to haul the goods do go up, the prices the retailer charges for the goods also go up. So you're not only paying your own higher fuel costs, but mine also. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's how unrestrained capitalism works: If the market will tolerate it, a savvy retailer will raise prices - with or without increased costs. It'a not a 1-to-1 correlation.

The only way to undermine the monopoly pricing policies on petroleum products is to undermine the monopoly itself. Until we get our act together and promote alternatives - Greasel, ethanol, butanol, bioDiesel - prices will be whatever Big Oil thinks it can get away with. They're not as blatent about it as Enron was with California's electricity supply but it works the same way.

So take your choice: A national energy policy focused on breaking the petroleum addiction or volatile prices and supply. One or the other.

 

[Teebird]

OPEC just stated yesterday that it could increase output to "attempt" to lower prices, however, there is not enough refining capacity to handle it. As has been stated, the US hasn't built a new refinery in 20 years. They are getting old and need a lot of maintenance. Alternate fuels may help.

 

[JimLockey]

Good comment ROOFEDITOR!

The blame game has already started. That's politics.

My quess would be somewhere between 6 and 10 cents a gallon.

The federal and state government have been trying to figure a way to get a little more tax money so let's add another 5 cents for the states and 10 to 15 cents for the federal government. Overall I would say 20 cents more a gallon if we are lucky.

What can we do about it? Not a darn thing.

 

[montanafan]

Roof, the price of Diesel should only increase slightly. The refineries are EACH having to spend millions of $ to be able to reduce the Sulfur content of the Diesel. I am hoping that one of the reasons the price is so high now is to cover that expense and to get us used to it. You are correct in your thinking about the middle man. They bear a lot of the responsibility for all fuel prices.
At the refinery where I work, I operate the plant that has to deal with the recovered sulfur, which we receive as H2S, then convert it to useable products. It is not tremendously profitable, so the extra sulfur we will process is more of a burden than a blessing.

 

[roofeditor]

[ QUOTE ]
Roof, the price of Diesel should only increase slightly. The refineries are EACH having to spend millions of $ to be able to reduce the Sulfur content of the Diesel. I am hoping that one of the reasons the price is so high now is to cover that expense and to get us used to it. You are correct in your thinking about the middle man. They bear a lot of the responsibility for all fuel prices.
At the refinery where I work, I operate the plant that has to deal with the recovered sulfur, which we receive as H2S, then convert it to usable products. It is not tremendously profitable, so the extra sulfur we will process is more of a burden than a blessing.

[/ QUOTE ]

"should only increase slightly".....would be the operative phrase. Once it becomes mandated, I predict price instability.

 

[larry_minn]

This stinks (again) *** is up with LS? Just means more pollutants at refinery. Last time they did this turcks had fuel lines freeze up,fuel pumps grind up. Did more damage to enviroment then good most likely.
When it gets mandatory I will have to get a barrel of good fuel to mix in till they figure out additives. (like last time)

 

[BluePSD]

"Here's how unrestrained capitalism works: If the market will tolerate it, a savvy retailer will raise prices - with or without increased costs. It'a not a 1-to-1 correlation."

no, that's how regulated/ subsidized/ gov't owned/ busisnesses/monopolies work.

in unrestrained capitalism there would be someone who would get into the business, sell the product for less thus cutting into market share of the company selling it for more, then the company selling the product at an artificially inflated price would either have to lower their price or go out of buisiness.

the oil industry has numerous problems to contend with not the least of which is the fact that most new reserves of oil are now held by state owned oil and gas comanies in places like the middle east, russia etc. other problems include lack of refining capacity, lack of will to commit to new refineries/pipelines etc. and also continually more stringint enviro regulations on fuel supplies (new lsd, ulsd etc.) also on exploration, refining, and transportation; this creats a diversion of company resources that would otherwise be going into finding new reserves, building new refineries etc.

 

[Pappy19]

The problem and real question is how the low sulphur fuel will effect our non-low-sulphur engines. I hear that our regular engines will have problems with less lubrication for injectors, pumps, etc. That's a bummer.

 

[gitchesum]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem and real question is how the low sulphur fuel will effect our non-low-sulphur engines. I hear that our regular engines will have problems with less lubrication for injectors, pumps, etc. That's a bummer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true.

Diesel lubricity injectors are being installed at loading terminals all over the country. They will replace the natural lubricity that is removed during the sulfur removal process. The cetane rating should also be a bit higher, so you might even notice a little performance increase.

Some folks think that the sulfur is what acts as a lubricant in diesel. That not the case. It's the sulfur removal process that removes the naturally occuring lubricants. They will be replaced with an additive.

 

[drcampbell]

[ QUOTE ]
no, that's how regulated/ subsidized/ gov't owned/ busisnesses/monopolies work.

in unrestrained capitalism there would be someone who would get into the business, sell the product for less thus cutting into market share of the company selling it for more, then the company selling the product at an artificially inflated price would either have to lower their price or go out of buisiness.

the oil industry has numerous problems to contend with not the least of which is the fact that most new reserves of oil are now held by state owned oil and gas comanies in places like the middle east, russia etc. other problems include lack of refining capacity, lack of will to commit to new refineries/pipelines etc. and also continually more stringint enviro regulations on fuel supplies (new lsd, ulsd etc.) also on exploration, refining, and transportation; this creats a diversion of company resources that would otherwise be going into finding new reserves, building new refineries etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, half right. Oil's not a commodity which responds to the rule of supply & demand, so classical macroeconomic theory doesn't restrain the price. Like authentic Stradivarius violins, the supply is fixed. All the Strads and all the petroleum which are ever going to be made have already been made. No matter how much the price/demand rises, there aren't going to be new Strads and there isn't going to be any new oil made. The only possibility would be to find more old oil, and what with satellite imaging, underground tomography and other cool technologies, (not to mention a bezillion boreholes already drilled and analyzed) we're pretty close to the point where all the oil is found and no amount of new investment will find any new supplies of petroleum. The rate of new discoveries has lagged behind consumption for several years now.

So yes, with no new oil ever going to be made, there's not a lot of incentive to build new refineries which are going to become completely obsolete in the forseeable future.

What we need to do now is stop thinking about increasing petroleum consumption and start thinking about and investing in the post-petroleum era. Ethanol, butanol, bioDiesel, (which is inherently sulphur-free) negawatts.

As for the costs of changeover, do the math: How fast does a multi-million dollar investment amortorize at the typical refinery capacity of 200,000 gallons per day?

 

[gitchesum]

New oil reserves are being found all the time. Take Utah for example. They just found a billion barrel oil field in West Utah. Other companies are discovering new oil reserve all over the world.

It is the amount of oil that is released to the market that defines the price.

A state controlled oil producer may have the ability to release 500 million barrels a day to the market, but only choose to release 250 million barrels. If hte demand stays constant and the supply is decreased, simple economics will tell you the price will increase.

Now, back to ULSD.
I believe the price will increase slightly due to the fact that not all diesel refiners will have the technology and the capital it takes to produce ULSD. They know they can still sell thier product as off-road diesel.
This will mean less on-road diesel fuel on the market.

However, sometime around 2010, all diesel produced will be required to meet the 15ppm sulfur content. Meaning ALL refiners will have to either produce it or shut down.