My truck when purchased 3 months ago showed 97,500 on the clock. I'm pretty sure it was never changed. No apparent problems, I decided that I would just go for it, and if it went out that meant it was going to go out anyway. So far, 3000 miles later and 2 long distance tows, no problems. THAT SAID, I was a mechanic in my prior life, and I remember one car in particular that came in for a transmission service. My boss (I was a junior woodchuck at the time) told me to save the old fluid in a clean container. When I asked him why, he told me that it was insurance, because the car had high miles and had never been serviced.
Sure enough, after the service, on the test drive, the transmission showed signs of slippage. We brought the car back in, drained out the new fluid, put the OLD fluid that we had saved back in, and politely told the customer that his transmission was worn beyond service-ability and that he could continue to drive it with the OLD fluid as long as it worked, until he could come up with the funds for a new tranny. I worked at that shop for 7 years. The old man continued to bring the same car in for oil changes and other usual things and never replaced the transmission in that time.
My boss told me that the old clutch/friction material gets suspended in the fluid. If worn excessively, the clutchs need that friction material to function. By replacing with new fluid, a lot of the old friction material is gone, hence it starts to slip. It just means it was worn out to start with, but by leaving the old fluid in, you might buy some time. I remembered that lesson, and saw it many more times in my life. So it is not an old wives tale, or even an old mechanics tale. What it does mean, is that the transmission was worn to begin with. Changing fluid on a healthy high mileage trans is fine. Changing fluid on a worn out, but otherwise functioning trans, may cause it to go out completely sooner than it would have with the old fluid in.
The night I changed my fluid in mine a few weeks ago, I sat there and looked at it for over an hour wondering if I was making a $3000+ mistake by changing the fluid. So far so good. I guess it wasn't worn out.
Hope this helps...
Randy